European Migration Policy

Since 1990 the territorial mobility in Romania has recorded a series of particularities determined by major transformations in the political, economic and social life. The economic disparities already existing between the prosperous and the lagging regions have increased during the transition years, influenced by institutional renewal, restructuring, privatization, etc. Several regions display higher unemployment rates, lower activity rates, lower incomes per capita and higher out-migration rates compared with the average. These regions have adapted inadequately to the changing economic conditions, such as the decline of various industries (e.g. coal mining in the south part of Romania) and, as a result of this fact, their out-migration has been intensified. In the early 1990s were already noticed widespread regional disparities in terms of labour supply as well as the main demographic indicators. Starting from this overall image the present paper examines the main changes in the intensity, orientation and territorial distance of migration flows as well as their structure and the variable influence of the ?push / pull? factors involved in this process. As a preliminary step in the analysis of the main characteristics of interregional mobility in Romania, the most significant zones in terms of their contribution to total national migration have been selected. Population and labour mobility between regions has been studied using a set of indicators calculated for the 1990 ? 2000 period: gross and net migration, in- and out-migration rates, in- and out-migration flows for the selected zones, their structure and dynamics and so on. Regression functions, input-output tables and gravitational models have been mainly employed. Analysing the results, the economic disparities seem to be the key issue in the question of population and labour mobility, as asserted by the neoclassical theory. Though, its mechanism is not confirmed by a series of concrete situations, such as the intense urban-rural flows, showing that, besides the economic factors, the institutional ones as well as the individual and family motivations are also very important for the persons that decide to migrate. In the next years is expected a decrease in the interregional migration in favour of the intra-regional one. The migration flows from urban to rural areas at the same time with those from rural to rural areas will continue to play a significant role. Finally, the paper discusses the economic policy measures able to reduce the long-distance migration and the intensity of the ?push? factors.

Potential immigration from Romania and Bulgaria

Summary

1. Romania and Bulgaria are due to join the EU on 1 January 2007.

2. Labour market transitional arrangements will be virtually the same as for the first round of East European candidate countries.

3. Their combined population is nearly 30 million and their unemployment rates are 8% (Romania) and 10% (Bulgaria). Bulgaria has 700,000 ethnic Turks and there are 2.5 million Roma in these two countries.

4. If the UK is again the only major EU country not to impose a transitional arrangement, further substantial immigration is to be expected. The statistical evidence suggests that migration for work could be nearly 300,000 in the first 20 months. It would be prudent, therefore, for the government not to open our labour market until the intentions of other EU15 states are clear. It will also be essential to close off the benefit system, as for the earlier round, to prevent benefit tourism.

Detail

5. Romania and Bulgaria are scheduled to accede to the European Union on 1 January 2007. A decision on whether or not to defer accession for a year will be taken by the European Council on 15/16 June 2006. Unless the UK Government imposes a transition period, entry to the EU will give workers from those countries rights of access to the UKs labour market similar to those enjoyed by workers from those countries that acceded on 1 May 2004 (Annex A).

6. The Governments Accession Monitoring Report, published on 28 February 2006, showed that there were 345,000 applicants to the Worker Registration Scheme from the eight central and Eastern European countries (the A8) between 1 May 2004 and 31 December 2005. Of these, up to 60,000 may have already been in the UK before 1 May 2004. 80 per cent were earning less than 6 per hour. 58 per cent, or 170,000, were from Poland. The Governments original estimate, challenged at the time by Migrationwatch, for net immigration from these states was 5-13,000 per year. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) believes that net migration from the accession countries in 2004 was 48,000; the Migrationwatch cautious estimate was 40,000 a year.

7. It is likely that unemployment and low incomes are the major drivers of labour migration from the former Eastern Bloc countries. In Poland, unemployment is currently running at 17.7 per cent and annual GDP per head is around $12,700 compared to 5.1 per cent and $30,900 in the UK. In Romania and Bulgaria, unemployment is lower than in Poland, at 7.7 and 9.9 per cent respectively, but incomes are also distinctly lower, averaging $8,400 and $9,000 respectively. (These comparisons are on a purchasing power parity basis). Romania has a population of 21.7 million and Bulgaria 7.8 million [1]. It is therefore likely that the accession of Romania and Bulgaria in January 2007 will result in further significant labour migration to the United Kingdom.

8. The decision of the other major EU countries to extend transitional measures for the A8 countries for a further three years makes it virtually certain that similar measures will be applied to Romania and Bulgaria.

IPPR Estimate

9. In April 2006, the IPPR published an estimate which assumed that a similar proportion of Bulgarian and Romanian nationals as A8 nationals would come to the UK. This amounted to 50,000 Romanians and 18,000 Bulgarians in the first year. They further assumed that 18% would already be here, giving new migrants at 41,000 Romanians and 15,000 Bulgarians or 56,000 in total.

10. The estimate also assumed, probably correctly, that other EU labour markets would remain closed to Romanians and Bulgarians for a transitional period. However, while recognising the importance of living standards, it made no allowance for the fact that Romanians and Bulgarians are significantly poorer than the A8. Their GDP per capita is just under 30% of the EU average compared to 45% for A8 countries.